The takeaway
Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in March (+0.1%) and softest in June (−5.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 33% of years, averaging −1.1%, roughly 3.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares's most dependable month has been March, higher in 2 of 3 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+2.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−6.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Shares ETF Trust - Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, March has closed higher 67% of the time versus 67% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward March — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 2 of 3 Marches.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+0.1%) and median (+4.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 8.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January and April have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 8 months that average a loss (−5.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, June, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −13.3% January in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2022 its best month (March, +0.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −5.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +0.1% and closing higher in 2 of 3 years since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade