The takeaway
Airbnb Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in February (+6.7%) and softest in May (−10.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 40% of years, averaging +4.1%, about +1.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Airbnb Inc's most dependable month has been February, higher in 4 of 5 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+12.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−10.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Airbnb Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Airbnb Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: February, up in 4 of 5 Februaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+6.7%) and median (+7.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.7% spread), and even its worst February in 6 years lost only 3.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +7.0 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: February lifts just 49% of stocks across the market.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — December–March forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−10.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, April, and November. Its roughest month on record was a −23.7% June in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: February aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (February), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (February, +6.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −10.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +6.7% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade