The takeaway
Arbor Realty Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in August (+4.7%) and softest in December (−2.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +5.4%, about +3.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Arbor Realty Trust's most dependable month has been August, higher in 9 of 10 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+4.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Arbor Realty Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Arbor Realty Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. August stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Augusts, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+4.7%) and median (+5.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.4% spread). Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −62.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, August's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (August, +4.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −2.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +4.7% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade