The takeaway
Arch Capital Group Ltd. shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in August (+4.7%) and softest in June (−0.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.9% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s most dependable month has been August, higher in 8 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+4.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: August, up in 8 of 10 Augusts while the other eleven tend to blur together.
A typical August brings +3.2%, a shade under the +4.7% average. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.0% spread), and even its worst August in 10 years lost only 0.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, May, and July have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−0.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, March, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −33.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (August, +4.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −0.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +4.7% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade