The takeaway
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+3.7%) and softest in February (−3.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +2.7%, about +0.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s most dependable month has been June, higher in 8 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+5.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−3.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: June, up in 8 of 10 Junes while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +3.7% average sits well above the +2.1% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Junes. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — June–September forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, March, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −74.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, June's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +3.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −3.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade