The takeaway
Adapthealth Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+4.6%) and softest in April (−12.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +4.6%, about +2.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Adapthealth Corp's most dependable month has been July, higher in 6 of 8 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+4.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−14.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Adapthealth Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Adapthealth Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 6 of 8 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +4.6% average sits well above the +2.4% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Julys. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 12.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, June, and December have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−12.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, November, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −27.3% November in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (July, +4.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −12.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.6% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −12.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade