The takeaway
AAR Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+3.3%) and softest in March (−6.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +0.9%, roughly 1.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
AAR Corp's most dependable month has been February, higher in 8 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+5.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is AAR Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating AAR Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and February is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 10 Februaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.3%) and median (+5.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even February ranges by 8.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.6 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April, May, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−6.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −51.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in February, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (February), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +3.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −6.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +3.3% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade