The takeaway
Alcon AG shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in May (+4.7%) and softest in September (−3.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 71% of years, averaging +2.9%, about +0.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Alcon AG's most dependable month has been May, higher in 5 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+4.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−3.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Alcon AG’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Alcon AG’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 60% of the time versus 71% across the last 7 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — May. It has closed higher in 5 of 7 Mays, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.7%) and median (+5.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even May ranges by 11.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.0 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, April, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−3.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, March, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −19.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, May's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2019 its best month (May, +4.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +4.7% and closing higher in 5 of 7 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade