The takeaway
Alerus Financial Corp shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+2.2%) and softest in October (−1.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +2.2% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Alerus Financial Corp's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+3.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−3.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Alerus Financial Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Alerus Financial Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in 7 of 10 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.2%) and median (+1.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
July anchors a run, too: the May-through-August window has been the stock's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−1.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −20.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +2.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +2.2% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade