The takeaway
Amplitude Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in October (+6.4%) and softest in April (−9.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +1.0%, roughly 1.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Amplitude Inc's most dependable month has been October, higher in 4 of 5 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+5.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−16.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Amplitude Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Amplitude Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — October. It has closed higher in 4 of 5 Octobers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+6.4%) runs well ahead of the median (+3.8%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even October ranges by 16.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, June, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−9.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, April, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −47.6% February in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (October, +6.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −9.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +6.4% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade