The takeaway
Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in September (+4.8%) and softest in January (−9.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 33% of years, averaging −0.6%, roughly 2.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares's most dependable month has been September, higher in 3 of 4 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+4.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in January (−8.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, September has closed higher 75% of the time versus 75% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — September. It has closed higher in 3 of 4 Septembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.8%) and median (+5.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.9 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February and April have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 8 months that average a loss (−9.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in January, May, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −17.2% January in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in September, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (September, +4.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −9.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +4.8% and closing higher in 3 of 4 years since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade