The takeaway
Api Group Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in July (+7.6%) and softest in September (−6.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 86% of years, averaging +7.6%, about +5.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Api Group Corp's most dependable month has been July, higher in 6 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+5.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−6.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Api Group Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Api Group Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 86% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in 6 of 7 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+7.6%) and median (+6.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, October, and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−6.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, March, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −35.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (July, +7.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −6.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +7.6% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade