The takeaway
Applied Digital Corporation shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+34.6%) and softest in April (+24.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +17.3%, about +15.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Applied Digital Corporation's most dependable month has been September, higher in 7 of 10 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+34.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Applied Digital Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Applied Digital Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: September, up in 7 of 10 Septembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +34.6% average sits well above the +19.3% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Septembers. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 51.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +34.7 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
Only January comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+24.4%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, June, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −78.4% June in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Septembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +34.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, +24.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +34.6% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+24.4%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade