The takeaway
Appfolio Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+5.0%) and softest in December (+0.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +3.5%, about +1.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Appfolio Inc's most dependable month has been June, higher in 9 of 10 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+7.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−3.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Appfolio Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Appfolio Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. June stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Junes, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+5.0%) and median (+5.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 7.6% spread). Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: December is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, September, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −24.9% October in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +5.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, +0.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +5.0% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.2%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade