The takeaway
Ares Capital Corporation shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+2.7%) and softest in June (−0.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +1.9% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Ares Capital Corporation's most dependable month has been January, higher in 9 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−3.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Ares Capital Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Ares Capital Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. January stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Januaries, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.7%) and median (+3.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — November–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, June is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March. Its roughest month on record was a −37.5% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
January has now closed higher 9 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — January is the firmest (+2.7%) and June the softest (−0.2%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
January has been the strongest, averaging +2.7% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade