The takeaway
Arlo Technologies shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+12.4%) and softest in August (−6.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 71% of years, averaging +12.4%, about +10.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Arlo Technologies's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 7 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+10.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−7.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Arlo Technologies’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Arlo Technologies’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 71% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in 5 of 7 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+12.4%) runs well ahead of the median (+4.6%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 22.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +10.2 points on average. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — June, November, and December have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−6.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, August, and January. Its roughest month on record was a −41.7% February in 2019 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (July, +12.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −6.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +12.4% and closing higher in 5 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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