The takeaway
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in June (+28.5%) and softest in March (−11.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 0% of years, averaging −9.4%, roughly 11.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares's most dependable month has been June, higher in 2 of 2 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+42.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−12.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent June history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — June. It has closed higher in all 2 Junes, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+28.5%) and median (+28.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: June's returns vary by just 0.2% year to year, and even its worst June in 3 years lost only 28.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — June has outpaced the S&P 500 by +28.3 points on average. Few peers keep such company in June — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, May, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−11.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, July, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −20.3% April in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in June, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 3-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (June, +28.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −11.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +28.5% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −11.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade