The takeaway
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in December (+17.4%) and softest in October (−16.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 67% of years, averaging +3.3%, about +1.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc's most dependable month has been December, higher in 4 of 6 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 17% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+16.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−17.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 60% of the time versus 67% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward December — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 4 of 6 Decembers.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+17.4%) and median (+12.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even December ranges by 25.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +16.4 points on average.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−16.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, May, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −52.3% October in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 6-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (December, +17.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −16.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +17.4% and closing higher in 4 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −16.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade