The takeaway
iShares Future AI & Tech ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in June (+3.4%) and softest in March (−4.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 63% of years, averaging +2.8%, about +0.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares Future AI & Tech ETF's most dependable month has been June, higher in 6 of 8 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares Future AI & Tech ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares Future AI & Tech ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and June is the anchor — it has closed higher in 6 of 8 Junes, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.4%) and median (+4.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — June has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.2 points on average. Few peers keep such company in June — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
June anchors a run, too: the May-through-August window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−4.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −14.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, June's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a fund this dependable in June, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (June, +3.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −4.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +3.4% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade