The takeaway
AerSale Corp shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in July (+3.0%) and softest in April (−4.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 86% of years, averaging +3.0%, about +0.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
AerSale Corp's most dependable month has been July, higher in 6 of 7 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+6.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−7.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is AerSale Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating AerSale Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 86% across the last 7 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 6 of 7 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +3.0% average sits well above the +0.6% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Julys. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +0.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: October and December have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−4.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in November, April, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −32.3% February in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2019 its best month (July, +3.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −4.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +3.0% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade