The takeaway
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in December (+11.0%) and softest in April (−6.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +7.6%, about +5.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc's most dependable month has been December, higher in 6 of 6 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| Median return % | ||||||||||||
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| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+10.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−8.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Academy Sports Outdoors Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Academy Sports Outdoors Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 6 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: December, up in all 6 Decembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+11.0%) and median (+10.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even December ranges by 8.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: December has cleared the S&P 500 by +10.0 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages December only about 58% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: March, May, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−6.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, September, and January. Its roughest month on record was a −19.9% February in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
December has now closed higher 6 years running. The pattern has softened of late, December's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: December aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (December, +11.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −6.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +11.0% and closing higher in all 6 years on record since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade