The takeaway
Algoma Steel Group Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in October (+8.4%) and softest in February (−4.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +3.0%, about +0.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Algoma Steel Group Inc's most dependable month has been October, higher in 5 of 5 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+7.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−13.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Algoma Steel Group Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Algoma Steel Group Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — October. It has closed higher in all 5 Octobers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+8.4%) runs well ahead of the median (+5.3%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +7.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
October anchors a run, too: the October-through-December window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−4.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, April, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −26.4% September in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a stock this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (October, +8.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −4.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +8.4% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade