The takeaway
Aurora Innovation Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+19.6%) and softest in May (−9.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +19.6%, about +17.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Aurora Innovation Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 5 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+17.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−10.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Aurora Innovation Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Aurora Innovation Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in all 5 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+19.6%) and median (+15.0%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 14.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +17.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — June, September, and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−9.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, October, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −57.6% January in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +19.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −9.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +19.6% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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