The takeaway
AvalonBay Communities Inc shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+0.4%) and softest in October (−2.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.3%, roughly 0.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
AvalonBay Communities Inc's most dependable month has been March, higher in 8 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−3.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is AvalonBay Communities Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating AvalonBay Communities Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. March stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Marches, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+0.4%) and median (+4.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 10.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April, June, and July have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, September, and May.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — March is the firmest (+0.4%) and October the softest (−2.1%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
March has been the strongest, averaging +0.4% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade