The takeaway
Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in May (+3.0%) and softest in September (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 83% of years, averaging +1.5%, roughly 0.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 5 of 6 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 7 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. May stands out, higher in 5 of 6 Mays, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.0%) and median (+2.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.8% spread), and even its worst May in 7 years lost only 1.4% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, February, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −20.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2019 its best month (May, +3.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +3.0% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade