The takeaway
Mission Produce Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in May (+3.7%) and softest in March (−4.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 40% of years, averaging +0.5%, roughly 1.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Mission Produce Inc's most dependable month has been May, higher in 4 of 5 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+2.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Mission Produce Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Mission Produce Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and May is the anchor — it has closed higher in 4 of 5 Mays, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.7%) and median (+4.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: May's returns vary by just 2.8% year to year, and even its worst May in 6 years lost only 0.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, June, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−4.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, November, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −27.0% December in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2020 its best month (May, +3.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −4.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade