The takeaway
Avantis Real Estate ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in November (+4.0%) and softest in February (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 75% of years, averaging +3.3%, about +1.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Avantis Real Estate ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 4 of 5 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+1.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−4.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Avantis Real Estate ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Avantis Real Estate ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in 4 of 5 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.0%) and median (+3.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — June and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, September, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −12.6% September in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (November, +4.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +4.0% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade