The takeaway
GraniteShares Gold Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in December (+2.1%) and softest in June (−1.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 63% of years, averaging +2.2% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
GraniteShares Gold Trust's most dependable month has been December, higher in 7 of 9 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−2.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is GraniteShares Gold Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating GraniteShares Gold Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 60% of the time versus 78% across the last 9 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. December stands out, higher in 7 of 9 Decembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.1%) and median (+1.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 1.8% spread), and even its worst December in 9 years lost only 0.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: December has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages December only about 58% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and April have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, June, and February.
The pattern has softened of late, December's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: December aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (December), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (December, +2.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −1.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +2.1% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade