The takeaway
BlackRock Capital Allocation Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in January (+2.6%) and softest in February (−1.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +1.4%, roughly 0.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
BlackRock Capital Allocation Trust's most dependable month has been January, higher in 4 of 5 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is BlackRock Capital Allocation Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating BlackRock Capital Allocation Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and January is the anchor — it has closed higher in 4 of 5 Januaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.6%) and median (+3.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April, May, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, September, and March.
For a stock this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2020 its best month (January, +2.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +2.6% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade