The takeaway
abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 9 years of data — strongest in January (+1.9%) and softest in February (0.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 56% of years, averaging +1.5%, roughly 0.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF's most dependable month has been January, higher in 7 of 8 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−3.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 100% of the time versus 88% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and January is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 8 Januaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.9%) and median (+1.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May and October have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, February is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, March, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −14.5% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
January has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Januaries run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — January is the firmest (+1.9%) and February the softest (0.0%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
January has been the strongest, averaging +1.9% and closing higher in 7 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging 0.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade