The takeaway
Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in August (+3.7%) and softest in September (−3.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 57% of years, averaging +0.6%, roughly 1.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc's most dependable month has been August, higher in 7 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+5.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−10.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and August is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 7 Augusts, the steadiest beat on its year.
A typical August brings +2.4%, a shade under the +3.7% average. No month is steadier: August's returns vary by just 2.4% year to year, and even its worst August in 8 years lost only 0.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — August has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.3 points on average. Few peers keep such company in August — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, October, and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−3.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −51.5% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
August has now closed higher 7 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in August, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (August, +3.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in all 7 years on record since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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