The takeaway
Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in June (+9.5%) and softest in October (−12.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +3.2%, about +1.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF's most dependable month has been June, higher in 6 of 8 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 13% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+11.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−13.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: June, up in 6 of 8 Junes while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +9.5% average sits well above the +5.3% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Junes. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 22.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +9.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: August, September, and November have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−12.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, January, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −38.0% August in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, June's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (June, +9.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −12.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +9.5% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −12.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade