The takeaway
Business First Bancshares Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in October (+6.2%) and softest in March (−9.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +5.8%, about +3.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Business First Bancshares Inc's most dependable month has been October, higher in 7 of 8 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+5.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−10.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Business First Bancshares Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Business First Bancshares Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 88% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. October stands out, higher in 7 of 8 Octobers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+6.2%) and median (+5.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 4.7% spread), and even its worst October in 8 years lost only 0.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages October only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: May, June, and July have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−9.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and January. Its roughest month on record was a −43.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: October aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (October, +6.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −9.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +6.2% and closing higher in 7 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade