The takeaway
Biglari Holdings Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in February (+6.9%) and softest in October (−4.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +1.0%, roughly 1.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Biglari Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been February, higher in 6 of 7 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+7.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Biglari Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Biglari Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 100% of the time versus 86% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — February. It has closed higher in 6 of 7 Februaries, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.9%) and median (+7.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: February's returns vary by just 6.1% year to year, and even its worst February in 8 years lost only 4.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +7.2 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — July and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−4.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −49.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
February has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Februaries run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in February, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (February), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (February, +6.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −4.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +6.9% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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