The takeaway
ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in August (+7.8%) and softest in September (−4.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 25% of years, averaging −7.4%, roughly 9.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF's most dependable month has been August, higher in 4 of 4 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+7.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−12.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, August has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — August. It has closed higher in all 4 Augusts, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+7.8%) and median (+7.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: August's returns vary by just 3.8% year to year, and even its worst August in 4 years lost only 4.0% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — August has outpaced the S&P 500 by +7.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in August — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
Only February comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 9 months that average a loss (−4.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, January, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −31.3% November in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in August, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (August), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (August, +7.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −4.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +7.8% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade