The takeaway
BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in March (+10.5%) and softest in September (−2.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +2.7%, about +0.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been March, higher in 7 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+9.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−3.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — March. It has closed higher in all 7 Marches, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
A typical March brings +7.0%, a shade under the +10.5% average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +9.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in March — the typical stock clears it just 56% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−2.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, October, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −18.5% October in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
March has now closed higher 7 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in March, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (March, +10.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −2.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +10.5% and closing higher in all 7 years on record since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade