The takeaway
Bank of Nova Scotia shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+2.0%) and softest in February (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +2.0% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Bank of Nova Scotia's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−1.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Bank of Nova Scotia’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Bank of Nova Scotia’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.0%) and median (+2.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.5% spread). Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and April have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −23.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +2.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +2.0% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade