The takeaway
Dutch Bros Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in October (+19.1%) and softest in April (−8.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +1.1%, roughly 1.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Dutch Bros Inc's most dependable month has been October, higher in 5 of 5 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+18.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−10.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Dutch Bros Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Dutch Bros Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — October. It has closed higher in all 5 Octobers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+19.1%) runs well ahead of the median (+7.8%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even October ranges by 23.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +18.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
October anchors a run, too: the October-through-December window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−8.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, September, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −30.7% November in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a stock this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (October, +19.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −8.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +19.1% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade