The takeaway
Banco Santander Brasil SA ADR shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+6.3%) and softest in February (−2.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +3.5%, about +1.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Banco Santander Brasil SA ADR's most dependable month has been October, higher in 6 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+5.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−2.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Banco Santander Brasil SA ADR’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Banco Santander Brasil SA ADR’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 40% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
No single month dominates — the stock carries a broad upward tilt, with 6 months rising more often than they fall and October (6 of 10 Octobers) nominally in front.
Its average (+6.3%) and median (+6.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even October ranges by 11.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.3 points above the index.
A few other months pull their weight: January, April, and May have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, September, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −41.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, October's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +6.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +6.3% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade