The takeaway
British American Tobacco p.l.c. shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+4.0%) and softest in February (−2.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.8%, roughly 1.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s most dependable month has been January, higher in 7 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+4.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−3.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is British American Tobacco p.l.c.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating British American Tobacco p.l.c.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 40% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in 7 of 10 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +4.0% average sits well above the +2.5% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Januaries. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: March, May, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−2.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, February, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −21.3% November in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, January's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +4.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +4.0% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade