The takeaway
Simplify Stable Income ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 4 years of data — strongest in February (+1.1%) and softest in April (−1.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +0.5%, roughly 1.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Simplify Stable Income ETF's most dependable month has been February, higher in 3 of 3 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+1.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Simplify Stable Income ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Simplify Stable Income ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, February has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. February stands out, higher in all 3 Februaries, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.1%) and median (+0.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.4 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: February lifts just 49% of stocks across the market.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — November–March forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−1.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, November, and July.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: February aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — February is the firmest (+1.1%) and April the softest (−1.2%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
February has been the strongest, averaging +1.1% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade