The takeaway
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+3.7%) and softest in April (+2.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +3.2%, about +1.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 10 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+2.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.7%) and median (+3.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
The lift is near-universal — strength runs through almost every month of the year, not one window. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+2.9%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −49.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — November is the firmest (+3.7%) and April the softest (+2.9%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+2.9%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade