The takeaway
CAE Inc. shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+4.7%) and softest in August (−2.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.8%, roughly 1.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
CAE Inc.'s most dependable month has been April, higher in 7 of 10 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+5.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is CAE Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating CAE Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 40% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. April stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Aprils, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
The headline flatters a touch — its +4.7% average sits well above the +2.1% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Aprils. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even April ranges by 13.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.0 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — April–June forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, August, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −54.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +4.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −2.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +4.7% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade