The takeaway
Carter Bank and Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+7.1%) and softest in April (−0.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.5%, roughly 1.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Carter Bank and Trust's most dependable month has been November, higher in 8 of 10 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+4.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Carter Bank and Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Carter Bank and Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 8 of 10 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.1%) and median (+6.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 9.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.8 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — November–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−0.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −47.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +7.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −0.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +7.1% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade