The takeaway
Carrier Global Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in March (+10.9%) and softest in February (−2.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 83% of years, averaging +11.3%, about +9.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Carrier Global Corp's most dependable month has been March, higher in 6 of 6 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+9.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−2.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Carrier Global Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Carrier Global Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — March. It has closed higher in all 6 Marches, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+10.9%) runs well ahead of the median (+3.9%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 15.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +9.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in March — the typical stock clears it just 56% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−2.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, September, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −16.6% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
March has now closed higher 6 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in March, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (March, +10.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +10.9% and closing higher in all 6 years on record since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade