The takeaway
CAVA Group, Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in January (+15.9%) and softest in September (−9.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 67% of years, averaging +13.3%, about +11.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
CAVA Group, Inc.'s most dependable month has been January, higher in 2 of 2 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+16.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−9.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is CAVA Group, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating CAVA Group, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent January history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in all 2 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+15.9%) and median (+15.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 1.4% spread), and even its worst January in 3 years lost only 14.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +16.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — October–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−9.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, February, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −30.8% February in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 3-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (January, +15.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −9.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +15.9% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade