The takeaway
Capital Bancorp shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in November (+5.3%) and softest in March (−2.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 86% of years, averaging +8.3%, about +6.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Capital Bancorp's most dependable month has been November, higher in 8 of 8 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+6.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−3.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Capital Bancorp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Capital Bancorp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 8 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.3%) and median (+4.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: November's returns vary by just 3.6% year to year, and even its worst November in 8 years lost only 0.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.0 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −18.1% March in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 8 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (November, +5.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −2.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +5.3% and closing higher in all 8 years on record since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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