The takeaway
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in January (+4.1%) and softest in September (−2.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 56% of years, averaging +1.4%, roughly 0.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc's most dependable month has been January, higher in 7 of 8 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+6.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Carlyle Secured Lending Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Carlyle Secured Lending Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 100% of the time versus 88% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and January is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 8 Januaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
A typical January brings +2.8%, a shade under the +4.1% average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.3 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
January anchors a run, too: the November-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −55.5% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
January has now closed higher 7 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Januaries run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (January, +4.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −2.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +4.1% and closing higher in 7 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade