The takeaway
Capital Group Core Balanced ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in November (+3.6%) and softest in April (−1.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +1.2%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Capital Group Core Balanced ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 3 of 3 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+2.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−3.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Capital Group Core Balanced ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Capital Group Core Balanced ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 3 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.6%) and median (+3.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.3 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the November-through-February window has been the fund's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−1.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and March.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2023 its best month (November, +3.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −1.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.6% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade