The takeaway
Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in May (+8.9%) and softest in March (−4.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +2.5% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 3 of 3 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+8.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, May has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and May is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 3 Mays, the steadiest beat on its year.
A typical May brings +6.0%, a shade under the +8.9% average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +8.2 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
May anchors a run, too: the May-through-January window has been the fund's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−4.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March and April. Its roughest month on record was a −10.6% November in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (May, +8.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −4.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +8.9% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade